Probability lab
Plan rolls without the gambler's fallacy
A dry streak does not make the next roll ‘due.’ Use probability to set expectations, then return to the part you can control: building a useful defense.
Listed odds are community-observed and may change. This calculator assumes independent rolls and no luck modifiers.
Chance of ≥1 Wooden Tesla15.4%
About 1,040 rolls for a 50% mathematical chance—not a guarantee.
How the calculation works
For listed odds of 1 in N and R independent rolls, the chance of at least one success is 1 − (1 − 1/N)R. A 50% chance is not a promise; half of comparable roll sessions can still miss.
Data boundary: the odds in this tool come from recent community gameplay reporting, not a creator-published probability table. Luck skills, shop boosts, gold rolls, pity systems, or updates can make the simple model inaccurate.
Use the number well
Set a roll budget before starting. Stop when it is spent. A useful common or mid-tier object can improve a missing base role sooner than a rare object that does not solve the current leak.